4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 22 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 8-D.Kaser punts 36 yards to IND 17, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.87 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP