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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 22

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to LAC 18, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.32 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model