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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 16

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 2-J.Lambo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model