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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 25

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 2-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.07 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP