Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(6:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to LV 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.88 EP
63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model