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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 43

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.13 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP