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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(4:32) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to LV 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard to LV 26 for 14 yards (50-N.Palmer; 31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.37 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model