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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 41

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(7:28) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to TEN 8, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.40 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP