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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 16

Tennessee Titans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.52 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model