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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 60 yards to TEN 13, Center-59-J.Condo. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 23 for 10 yards (57-C.James; 41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.84 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -2.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model