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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:25) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to LV 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.40 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model