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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(11:00) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 35 yards to TEN 16, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.54 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model