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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to LV 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard to LV 26 for 12 yards (47-A.Blake; 59-W.Woodyard).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.78 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 57, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model