Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 18-J.Locke punts 62 yards to CAR 7, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-85-R.Ellison. PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CAR 7.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model