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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 3-B.Walsh 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model