Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 85

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Carolina Panthers 10

(2:40) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to CAR 35, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 34 for -1 yards (84-C.Patterson).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.60 EP
55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model