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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 94

Carolina Panthers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 2

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to MIN 46, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-M.Sherels for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.60 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 94, worth -5.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 52, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model