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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:31) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.80 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model