4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 84

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(6:17) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to LA 32, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.60 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 84, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 42, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP