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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:50) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.46 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.05 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP