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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 – Los Angeles Rams 37

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 78-G.Cherilus reported in as eligible. 34-C.Sims up the middle pushed ob at LA 7 for 23 yards (22-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.29 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model