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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(10:08) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 55 yards to LA 21, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 29 for 8 yards (50-J.Keyes).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 76, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model