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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(4:46) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.65 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model