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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(8:37) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to LA 16, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-T.Austin to LA 20 for 4 yards (32-J.Rodgers).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.15 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model