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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 80

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:10) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 64 yards to TB 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 29 for 13 yards (58-C.Littleton).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.54 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP