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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(11:49) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to LA 11, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.50 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model