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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(14:32) (No Huddle) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to LA 2 for 14 yards (22-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.07 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model