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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 44

New England Patriots 27 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 6-R.Allen punts 40 yards to HOU 4, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +0.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP