Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 2 at the 45
Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 27
What Actually Happened
(8:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete deep right to 15-W.Fuller.
The Three Options
GO
+0.37 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.68 EP
- 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.31 EP
KICK
-1.06 EP
- 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
- 61% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT
-0.85 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.85 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
