Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 63

New England Patriots 20 – Houston Texans 0

(13:33) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to HOU 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.25 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model