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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 36

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(14:16) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short middle to 15-W.Fuller (21-M.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.50 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.03 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -3.36 EP
PUNT -1.09 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model