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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 63

New England Patriots 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to HOU 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.43 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model