Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 77

New England Patriots 20 – Houston Texans 0

(3:36) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to HOU 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.44 EP
47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model