Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 61

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to NE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-C.Jones to NE 16 for 10 yards (41-J.Grimes). FUMBLES (41-J.Grimes), and recovers at NE 16. 24-C.Jones to NE 16 for no gain (41-J.Grimes).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.37 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model