4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 50

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 9-S.Lechler punts 36 yards to NE 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.48 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP