Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 63

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to NE 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-31-C.James. PENALTY on HOU-31-C.James, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at NE 16.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
78% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model