Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 62

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to NE 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-C.Jones to NE 18 for 13 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NE-51-B.Mingo at NE 25. Houston challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to NE 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-C.Jones to NE 18 for 13 yards (41-J.Grimes).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.94 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model