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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(7:03) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.86 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model