Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 24 – Cleveland Browns 24

(2:17) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to CLE 26, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 33-J.Poyer.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model