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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 30

Cleveland Browns 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(:46) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.95 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model