Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

(11:27) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 54 yards to CLE 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 22-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model