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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 33

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 26-T.Coleman right end to NO 32 for 1 yard (41-R.Harper). PENALTY on NO-41-R.Harper, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at NO 32.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.67 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model