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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 30

New Orleans Saints 32 – Atlanta Falcons 45

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 9-D.Brees right guard to ATL 28 for 2 yards (44-V.Beasley).

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.80 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model