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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 35 – New Orleans Saints 25

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 3, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP