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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 1

Buffalo Bills 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 2-D.Carpenter 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +4.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.60 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.93 EP