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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 65

Buffalo Bills 33 – Arizona Cardinals 18

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 25 yards to ARI 40, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.53 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 23, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model