Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(7:28) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to BUF 14, Center-86-K.Canaday. 15-B.Tate to BUF 22 for 8 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.37 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model