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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 27

Buffalo Bills 30 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 2-D.Carpenter 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.30 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model