4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 12

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Buffalo Bills 23

What Actually Happened

(2:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Butler FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 22, touched at BUF 40, RECOVERED by BUF-23-A.Williams at BUF 47. 23-A.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Fumble touched by C.Catanzaro before A.Williams recovery.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.56 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model