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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 36

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 2-D.Butler punts 25 yards to BUF 11, Center-86-K.Canaday, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.13 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP